000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240943 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN APR 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG AXIS FROM 06N78W TO 09N100W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W TO 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 18N140W. THIS WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST...NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 26N149W. AN ASSOCIATED 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 28N145W. THIS WILL DRIFT ENE AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE SUN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EAST TOWARD 140W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...REACHING FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO 19N130W BY LATE SUN. ASCAT DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRES...FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N...W OF 125W. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. FRESH NW TO N FLOW IS ALSO NOTED IN ASCAT DATA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES. THE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE MON ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA...W OF LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA SW TO ROUGHLY 07N125W. SEAS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN TO GREATER THAN 8 FT DUE TO NE SWELL IN AN AREA FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 135W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT IN NW SWELL WILL ALSO PUSH DOWN THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST IN NW SWELL. E OF 110W...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N98W TO 04N100W IS WELL DEFINED IN 0030Z WINDSAT DATA AND 0430W ASCAT DATA. NE SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS CONVERGING WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE ITCZ AND LIKELY PROVIDING SUPPORT TO ONGOING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 15N110W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT ALOFT FOR THIS CONVECTION AS WELL. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DISSIPATING THROUGH MON SHUTTING OFF UPPER DIVERGENCE...DIMINISHING THE CONVECTION. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY NW...AND EXTEND FROM 15N108W TO 10N110W BY TUE. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ARE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH OR OF LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. $$ CHRISTENSEN