000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 03N85W TO 08.5N98W TO 02N117W 
TO 04N129W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 98W. 
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 121W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 
127W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1022 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE 
AREA NEAR 25N138W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N110W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE 
OVER MEXICO IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 24N E OF 117W 
TO THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING NE TO E 20 KT TRADES FROM 06N TO 14N W 0F 132W. THE 
HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT TO JUST WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE MAINTAINING OVER THE SAME AREA THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH 20 KT NW FLOW 
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MAINTAIN THE FRESH 20 KT 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA W OF 130W. 

E OF THE RIDGE...AND 110W...LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS PREVAIL 
UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE. A BROAD YET WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
ALONG THE ITCZ FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED INTO A 
TROUGH ALONG 98.5W WHICH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. MODERATE TRADES ARE BLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
INTO THE PACIFIC...BLOWING W THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND S 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA...BOTH ONLY A FEW DEGREES DOWNSTREAM. 
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL SHUT DOWN BELOW 15 KT BY SUN 
EVENING.  

$$
STRIPLING