000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 06N77W TO 65N125W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 
110W.

...DISCUSSION...

1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N137W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS ACROSS 
NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA TO AROUND 15N110W. PRES GRADIENTS 
ON SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND AS A RESULT
WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE NE PACIFIC BASIN ARE LESS THAN 20 KT. LIGHT 
WINDS PREVAIL NEAR THE HIGH PRES CENTER AND S OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
TO THE EQUATOR E OF 100W. ONLY REMAINING AREA OF MODERATE 10-15 
KT WINDS ARE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 120W AND IN THE TRADE WIND 
BELT BETWEEN 8N AND 20N W OF 120W. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LIGHT 
WINDS SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND ARE GENERALLY 5-7 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO AROUND 27N134W WED. A THERMAL 
TROUGH OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT IN THE SW U.S. TIGHTENS THE PRES 
GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20 KT WINDS AFTER THU WITHIN 150 NM W 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AFTER THU...BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN MARINE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE EPAC THROUGH SAT.

VERY LONG PERIOD 19-20 SEC CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL SWEEP 
NE THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA THU EVENING. SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FT BUT HIGH 
ENERGY SWELL WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181530 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 06N77W TO 65N125W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 
110W.

...DISCUSSION...

1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N137W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS ACROSS 
NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA TO AROUND 15N110W. PRES GRADIENTS 
ON SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND AS A RESULT
WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE NE PACIFIC BASIN ARE LESS THAN 20 KT. LIGHT 
WINDS PREVAIL NEAR THE HIGH PRES CENTER AND S OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
TO THE EQUATOR E OF 100W. ONLY REMAINING AREA OF MODERATE 10-15 
KT WINDS ARE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 120W AND IN THE TRADE WIND 
BELT BETWEEN 8N AND 20N W OF 120W. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LIGHT 
WINDS SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND ARE GENERALLY 5-7 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO AROUND 27N134W WED. A THERMAL 
TROUGH OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT IN THE SW U.S. TIGHTENS THE PRES 
GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20 KT WINDS AFTER THU WITHIN 150 NM W 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SAT.

VERY LONG PERIOD 19-20 SEC CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL SWEEP 
NE THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA THU EVENING. SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FT BUT HIGH 
ENERGY SWELL WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

$$
MUNDELL