000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 06N78W TO 04N84W TO A LOW PRES 1009 MB 
NEAR 05N92W TO 02N106W TO 04N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA SHOW MODERATE TO 
STRONG NW WINDS N OF 30N OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS...BETWEEN 119W AND 126W. S OF 30N...FRESH 
N WINDS ARE EVIDENT S TO AROUND 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. N TO 
NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE NW WINDS W OF SOCAL IS BUILDING SEAS 
TO AROUND 9-10 FT IN THAT REGION. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE PAST 
24 HOURS ARE DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. SCAT DATA SHOWS 
NE TO E WINDS 15-20 KT OVER MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7N AND 25N. 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE 
IN THE AREA NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY 
SUN AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH W OF SOCAL AND NORTHERN BAJA 
SUN AND MON. AS A RESULT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO 
PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE EPAC BASIN BY MON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
AT LEAST THU. WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 05N92W HAS INCREASED
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
REMAINS POOR WITH LITTLE CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS CIRCULATION TO PERSIST AS A WEAK LOW AROUND 
1009 OR 1010 MB THROUGH WED OR THU. 

LONG PERIOD 19-20 SEC SW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE E-PAC FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BY MID-WEEK. VERY HIGH SURF IS LIKELY ALONG 
THE WEST COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA AROUND THU AND FRI.

$$
MUNDELL