000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 06N78W TO 04N84W TO A LOW PRES 1009 MB 
NEAR 05N92W TO 02N106W TO 04N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 
MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS N OF 30N OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. S OF 
30N...FRESH N WINDS ARE EVIDENT AS FAR S AS 25N BETWEEN 119W AND 
126W. N TO NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE WINDS W OF SOCAL IS BUILDING
SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT IN THAT REGION. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE PAST
24 HOURS HAS BEEN DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. SCAT DATA HAS
WINDS 15-20 KT OVER MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7N AND 25N. MODEL 
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT IN THE REGION
OF NORMALLY ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW W OF 115W BY SUN AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH W OF SOCAL AND NORTHERN BAJA 
SUN AND MON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO 
PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE EPAC BASIN BY MON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
AT LEAST THU. WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 05N92W WILL PERSIST 
AS A WEAK LOW AROUND 1010 MB THROUGH WED OR THU. LONG PERIOD 19-
20 SEC SW SWELL WILL BE THE ONLY MARINE PARAMETER THAT MAY IMPACT
THE REGION IN THE COMING WEEK...WITH VERY HIGH SURF LIKELY ALONG 
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA THU AND FRI.

$$
MUNDELL