000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151615
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FROM 03N78W TO A LOW PRES 
1009 MB NEAR 04N91W TO EQ121W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 121W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 
LOW PRES NEAR 04N91W. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR AMOUNT OF 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE LOW AND EVIDENCE OF SOME CYCLONIC 
TURNING IN THE ANIMATED IMAGERY. INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR 
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE FACT THAT TSTMS 
REMAIN PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW IN SPITE OF SEVERAL INHIBITING 
FACTORS INDICATES THIS OFF-SEASON AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BEAR 
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP 
THE CIRCULATION VIABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH ONLY AT 15-20 KT
BUT THIS IS THE FIRST SIGN OF LIFE FOR THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC SO 
FAR IN 2011. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT WNW THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE 
TO AROUND 16N115W. THE HIGH IS SLOWLY RECEDING W...BUT A TROUGH 
OVER NW MEXICO IS CREATING ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THAT FRESH NW WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRES GUIDANCE WILL RELAX OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT SAT.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AS WELL
THROUGH SAT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER W AND WEAKENS...EXPECT 
TRADES TO STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO 
SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT TONIGHT...AND APPROACH 8 FT BY SUN MORNING. 
LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD 17-18 SEC SW SWELL WILL SWEEP ACROSS 
THE E PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


$$
MUNDELL