000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 3N78W 5N90W 3N115W 3N125W 00N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 85W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 105W-109W AND WITHIN 120 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 115W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 24N130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-30N W OF 120W. DOWNSTREAM 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE SW U.S. TO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 22N125W. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 
17N95W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 
8N E OF 110W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 15W.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
8N126W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
105W-123W.

SURFACE 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N129W WITH RIDGE 
FROM THE HIGH TO 15N105W. NE TRADES AROUND THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 5N-25N W OF 
125W. SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 10N110W TO 5N107W WITH A FEW 
SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 2N101W. CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW IS MAINLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECEASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY THIS EVENING. NLY WINDS TO 
20 KT ARE ALSO BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF GULF OF PANAMA 
HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND THE WIND WILL 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY FRI.

$$
DGS