000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE APR 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 8N82W 5N90W 9N100W 1N112W 00N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 110 NM S OF AXIS FROM 118W-122W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 20N140W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N131W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 105W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA....OTHERWISE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 120W. SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 10N W OF 115W WITH NE TRADES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 20-25 KT FROM 5N-22N W OF 130W. SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 9N132W TO 1N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 6N-9N. A COUPLE OF LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST IS 1010 MB NEAR 4N90W...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 8N102W SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE LOW CENTER. ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DECEASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY THU MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR 20 KT NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT WED AFTERNOON. $$ DGS