000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111536 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON APR 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO EQUATOR AT 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 131W N OF 20N...SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N145W. A 1030 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 32N128W WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH EARLY TUE AS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY DIGS A NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG 140W N OF 20N. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN N OF 30N AS A RESULT. STRONGER 1037 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED AT 37N150W WILL SHIFT SW TO 35N135W BEHIND SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH TUE. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES MAINLY S OF 25N...AND ALONG THE BAJA COAST. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE NOTED IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE JUST AS NE SWELL WILL BUILD WITH PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW. 20 KT WINDS REPORTED BY A TOGA-TAO BUOY N OF THE ITCZ INDICATES FRESH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALSO SUPPORTED BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL...ON THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO. E OF 110W... A 04Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT FLOW OFF OF CABO CORRIENTES...IN BETWEEN 1030 MB HIGH PRES TO THE WEST...AND 1007 MB LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A SHIP OBSERVATION SUPPORTED MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY REGENERATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TUE WILL DELIVER FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE...DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY WED. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL N ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN N PACIFIC S OF PANAMA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW S OF 06N TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 08N AND E OF 95W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... FRESH NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE TODAY BETWEEN 1030 MB HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER NW MEXICO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES DISSIPATES. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH LATE TODAY. $$ CHRISTENSEN