000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N80W 
TO 04N87W TO 05N95W THEN RESUMES FROM 04N100W TO 06N120W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 03N129W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 00N136W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 
108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1031 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N138W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 18N107W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 09N TO 22N W OF 
125W AND FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. MEANWHILE LARGE 
NW SWELLS TO 15 FT WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS ARE 
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH 
SWELLS TO 8 FT W OF 109W. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8 
TO 10 FT BY 48 HOURS.

NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS REMAINING JUST BELOW 
8 FT. THE LARGEST AREAL EXTENT OF THE 20 KT WINDS WILL BE IN 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
COMMENCE IN THE CENTRAL GULF SUN MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL 
EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BY SUN NIGHT AS THE 
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RIDGE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS 
AND NE MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE 
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TIGHTEN TO SUPPORT 20 KT NW TO 
N WINDS BY SUN MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
AL