000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090255
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 10N92W TO 05N101W TO 05N117W TO SOUTH THE 
EQUATOR AT 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 85W AND 105W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
115W AND 125W.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STATIONARY 
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SW TO 22N130W. JET ENERGY AT 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY E...AHEAD OF A 
WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 35N140W. AT THE SURFACE...AN 
ASSOCIATED 1035 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 37N144W IS SLOWLY 
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. OPEN CELLULAR STRATUS FIELDS ARE 
NOTED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS FAR WEST AS 135W INDICATIVE OF 
LATE SEASON COLD AIR ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 30N116W TO 27N120W...FOLLOWED BY 20 TO 25 KT NW 
WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ALONG THE BAJA COAST THROUGH 
SAT...THEN DISSIPATE AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. 
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 
20N W OF 115W TO THE SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING HIGH PRES. 
MEANWHILE...NW SWELL UP TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE 
AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS...TO JUST N OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
11N114W TO 06N117W. 

E OF 110W...DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND 
CONVERGENCE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSIST 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ E OF 105W DUE TO ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 08N. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO...AHEAD OF HIGH PRES 
OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDING EASTWARD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 
BELOW 8 FT DUE TO FETCH LIMITATIONS. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 
SUNDAY S OF 28N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE WEST.


$$
CHRISTENSEN