000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 07N92W TO 04N100W TO SOUTH THE 
EQUATOR AT 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 90W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STATIONARY 
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SW TO 22N130W. JET ENERGY AT 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY E...AHEAD OF A 
WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 35N140W. AT THE SURFACE...AN 
ASSOCIATED 1035 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 37N144W IS SLOWLY 
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. OPEN CELLULAR STRATUS FIELDS ARE 
NOTED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS FAR WEST AS 135W INDICATIVE OF 
LATE SEASON COLD AIR ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 30N116W TO 27N120W...FOLLOWED BY 20 TO 25 KT NW 
WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ALONG THE BAJA COAST THROUGH 
SAT...THEN DISSIPATE AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. 
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 
20N W OF 115W TO THE SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING HIGH PRES. 
MEANWHILE...NW SWELL UP TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE 
AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS...TO JUST N OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
11N114W TO 06N117W. 

E OF 110W...DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND 
CONVERGENCE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ E OF 100W DUE TO 
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE 
SOUTH EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 08N. OTHERWISE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WINDS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY TONIGHT 
AND SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO...AHEAD OF HIGH PRES 
OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDING EASTWARD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 
BELOW 8 FT DUE TO FETCH LIMITATIONS.


$$
CHRISTENSEN