000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080257
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0200 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 90W INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO 
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DOMINATES THE MID AND UPPER 
LEVELS N OF 20N AS A UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE 
WESTERN UNITED STATES...TO THE EAST OF A SHARP UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED ALONG 145W. AN ASSOCIATED 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 39N145W IS DRIFTING SE...RESULTING IN STRONG TO GALE FORCE 
NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND TROUGHING OVER THE 
WESTERN U.S. THIS IN TURN IS ALLOWING NW SWELL AS HIGH AS 15 FT 
TO PUSH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 32N AS NOTED BY SHIP AND 
JASON ALTIMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THROUGH SAT...WITH THE 
HIGHEST SEAS N OF 25N. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS OUT OF THE NE MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 125W...ON THE SW 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES. NE TRADES ARE ALSO STARTING TO 
BECOME REESTABLISHED BETWEEN 10N TO 15N BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO 
THE NW AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N112W TO 
03N124W...SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE BASE OF A UPPER 
TROUGH ALONG 110W FROM 09N TO 18N. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE 
PAST FEW HOURS. 

E OF 110W...WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS 
TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUBSIDE. A BRIEF PULSE TO 20 KT MAY 
REOCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL 
REMAIN BELOW 20 KT OFF PAPAGAYO UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT 
MORNING WHEN GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A MORE SUSTAINED PULSE TO 20 
KT IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH...AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS 
CORROBORATED MODEL DEPICTIONS OF SOUTHERLY 20 KT FLOW S OF OF 
PANAMA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. 
ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SW SWELL LINGERING S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W 
AND 110W WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT THROUGH FRI.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE STILL IN OFFING OVER 
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO...AHEAD OF 
HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDING EASTWARD. SEAS 
WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT DUE TO FETCH LIMITATIONS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN