000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 
05N112W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGING NE OF HAWAII ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1043 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 40N150W ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY E...FOLLOWING A 
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. 
A  SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 17N ALONG 130W IS 
RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. 
ASCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE 
WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PRES. RECENT 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A 17Z JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOW 
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT...MAINLY IN NW SWELL...N OF 20N W OF 125W. S 
OF 20N...TRADE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT WILL 
GRADUALLY INCREASE W OF 120W THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE BUILDS N 
OF THE AREA. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 
S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS NEAR SALINA CRUZ 
INDICATE FRESH N FLOW IS STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS INTO 
ADJACENT WATERS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT THROUGH EARLY 
THU AS THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
MODIFIES. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WITH NE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE AS WELL THROUGH EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER NW 
SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING 20 KT E WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THU MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE 
GALE CONDITIONS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVES INTO THE AREA 
ALONG WITH ENHANCED EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT BY FRI MORNING AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN