000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060307
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 03N100W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM S SIDE OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS PUSHED 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE 
LATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT WATERS INTO WED MORNING 
THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. FURTHER 
SOUTH...FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

STRONG 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC NEAR 40N155W WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ESE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 
22N129W TO 13N129W...ASSOCIATED WITH AN WELL DEFINED UPPER 
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST 
12 HOURS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF 20 KT WINDS OUT OF THE NE 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PRES. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT LIKELY IN NE SWELL. SEAS 
WILL BUILD BY WED AS NW SWELL PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS 
TO 15 FT. 

FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WIND FLOW IS STIFLED BY THE WEAK 
TROUGHING N OF 12N. HOWEVER...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WILL REACH AS FAR N AS 15N E 
OF 95W BY THU. 

SW WINDS WILL REACH 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW 
MEXICO...AND HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC.

$$
CHRISTENSEN