000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N82W TO 02N99W TO 06N115W TO 03N125W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 85W TO 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS PUSHED 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE 
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH WED. FURTHER 
SOUTH...FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

STRONG 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC NEAR 40N155W WILL SLOWING SHIFT ESE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 
21N129W TO 12N130W...ASSOCIATED WITH AN WELL DEFINED UPPER 
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF 20 KT WINDS OUT OF THE NE 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PRES. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT LIKELY IN NE SWELL. SEAS 
WILL BUILD BY WED AS NW SWELL PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS 
TO 15 FT. 

FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WIND FLOW IS STIFLED BY THE WEAK 
TROUGHING N OF 12N. HOWEVER...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WILL REACH AS FAR N AS 15N E 
OF 95W BY THU. 

SW WINDS WILL REACH 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW 
MEXICO...AND HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC.

$$
CHRISTENSEN