000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 06N88W TO 03N100W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 85W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER 24N130W. ASCAT AND WINDSAT SHOW AN ASSOCIATED SHARP SURFACE 
TROUGH RELATED TO THE UPPER CIRCULATION FROM 26N128W TO 17N132W. 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH THE SCATTEROMETERS SHOW 200 KT NE 
FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES 
NEAR 34N140W. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH EARLIER 
ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT LIKELY IN NE 
SWELL. FURTHER SOUTH...NO LARGE SCALE AREA OF TRADE WINDS ARE 
NOTED IN EXCESS OF 20 KT...MAINLY DUE TO THE WEAK TROUGHING N OF 
20N. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL. THE NW SWELL 
WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INFLUX OF SW 
SWELL.

E OF 110W...THE MAIN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS GAP WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. WINDS TO 20 KT 
WERE NOTED ON A 15Z ASCAT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIKELY 
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AND ENHANCED 
TRADES THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED...BUT WILL REOCCUR BRIEFLY TUE AND WED MORNING. 
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL DELIVER WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 00Z WED. THE GALE WILL BE SHORT 
LIVED HOWEVER...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY 
12 WED. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN