000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN APR 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 4N91W 4N104W 3N118W 4N129W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-95W...AND 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NEAR 30N126W...BUT IS BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH TIME. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SW TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AT 24N133W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CIRCULATION SW TO W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 18N140W...AND CONTINUES TO A COL REGION AT 18N147W. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGES ARE EVIDENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WITH THE CREST OF THE ONE W OF THE REGION NOW STRETCHING WELL TO THE NE TOWARDS THE FAR NW U.S. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE 0600 UTC PRES ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG A PSN FROM 27N127W SW TO 21N134W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT 37.5N135.5W AND ALSO LOWER PRES OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN NE 20 KT WINDS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 25N130W TO 23N140W. SEAS THERE ARE 10-12 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME IN AREAL DURING MONDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE MOVING S. HOWEVER...THE MAIN MARINE ISSUE WILL BE CONTINUING LARGE SEAS FURTHER INDUCED BY ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS THAT MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT BUILDING SEAS TO A MAX OF 13 FT. SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 FT AS THE SWELLS DECAY. SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION AND MAINLY TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N133W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE LARGE RIDGE W OF THE AREA QUICKLY MOVES INLAND THE WESTERN U.S BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO GRADUALLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO S TO NEAR 1N1100W. TO ITS SE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N94W TO 2N96W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM TO THE E OF THE TROUGHS. E OF TROUGHS THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N63W NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FLOW...CONSISTING OF S TO SW WINDS...CONTINUES TO PUMP UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BLOW OFF BROKEN TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM ITCZ CONVECTION N AND NE TO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVEWATCH WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OF 112W...THEN SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS IN 24 HOURS BETWEEN 105W AND A LINE FROM 20N123W TO 18N127W TO THE EQUATOR AT 135W. SEAS THEN BUILD TO 10 FT IN 48 HOURS DUE TO A NEW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TRAIN S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND AND 127W WHILE THEY SHOULD BE UP TO 8 FT IN A N SWELL ELSEWHERE N OF 18N AND W OF 113W AT THAT TIME. $$ AGUIRRE