000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 07N80W TO 03N95W TO 04N110W TO 01N125W TO 
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 
94W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 25N140W WITH A WEAK TROUGH EVIDENT 
NEAR THE SURFACE FROM 14N140W TO 23N137W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID 
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION...BUT
VERY LITTLE OTHER THAN TRADEWIND STRATOCUMULUS NEAR THE SURFACE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF 
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CROSS-EQUATORIAL W OF 115W...WITH A
MORE ACTIVE ITCZ EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR 33N143W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND AS A RESULT
THE PRES GRADIENT IS EASING W OF 130W. LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT OVER NEARLY ALL THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW3 
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE OF LONG PERIOD 17-18 SEC NW 
SWELL WILL REACH THE EXTREME NW PORTION TONIGHT WITH MAX SEAS TO
12-13 FT. SWELL WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER SW TO AROUND 115W BY SAT 
EVENING WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TO 9-10 FT, REST REMAINS QUIET. 

$$
MUNDELL