000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED MAR 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... NTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N86W 2N95W 4N106W TO 2N115W TO 1N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SW ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 24N117W...THEN NW TO A COL REGION AT 27N125W. TO THE W OF THE COL THE FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC GENERALLY N OF 21N W OF 136W IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE REGION NEAR 26N142W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND COL REGION AS WELL AS TO THE NW OF THE COLD REGION. THE UPPER FLOW IS NLY TO THE N OF THE TROUGH E OF THE COL THEN BECOMES NE TO E W OF THE COL TO 136W WHERE IT VEERS TO E TO SE ON THE NORTHERN PERIHERY OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATTED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 37N128W WITH A CREST STRETCHING WELL TO NW OF THE REGION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...THEN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. AND TURNING SW TO OFF FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. S OF THE UPPER TROUGH BROAD W TO W FLOW COVERS THE AREA E OF 120W...WHILE TO THE W OF 120W THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW TO WELL W OF THE AREA...AND ALSO DUE TO MID/UPPER RIDGE ALONG 129W. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 21N140W... AND EXTENDS NE TO OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR 26N129W...THEN HAS A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SE THROUGH 23N120W TO 22N114W AND NE TO ACROSS EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50-60 KT WITHIN ABOUT 500 NM S OF THE JET. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA S OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 18N-21N. MOSTLY OVERCAST HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE CONFINED FROM 17N TO 27N W OF 131W AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT YESTERDAY WAS NOTED OVER THE GALAPAGOS HAS SINCE SHIFTED TO JUST SW OF NICARAGUA WITH A RIDGE SW TO 8N107W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR VERY LIMITED TO NO MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT OVER THE PORTION OF THIS AREA S OF 16N AND E OF 101W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...IS BEING CHANNELED NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N114W TO 1N107W TOWARDS SE MEXICO AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1036 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N137W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N125W TO NEAR 21N113W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 14N AND W OF 116W. FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 5N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 26N E OF 126W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AS EVIDENCED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1742 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING N TO NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH TO THE N PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING FOR THE LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO BECOME RATHER BROAD TO ALONG NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC. BY THU EVENING...THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL AS IT SHIFTS W TO ALONG 30N BETWEEN 125W-132W. SEAS UP TO 9 OR 10 FT IN A N SWELL MAY BE JUST CROSSING 30N-32N WITHIN THIS AREA OF N TO NE WINDS. $$ AGUIRRE