000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300310 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED MAR 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... A BROKEN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG FROM 5N78W TO 7N83W...THEN RESUMES AT 2N97W TO 6N114W TO 1N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL U.S. SW TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WSW TO A COL REGION AT 28N130W. TO THE W OF THIS REGION AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS FORMED NEAR 27N141W MOVING WESTWARD. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH IS NOTED N OF 25N E OF 122W...AND N OF 26N W OF 122W. THE UPPER FLOW IS W TO NW BEHIND THE TROUGH...THEN BECOMES NE TO E W OF THE COL REGION. A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TILTED NE TO SW IS LOCATED NW OF THE REGION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. S OF THE UPPER TROUGH BROAD SW TO W FLOW COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT W OF 119W WHERE THE FLOW IS VASTLY ANTICYCLONIC AHEAD OF A VERY SHARP NE TO SW UPPER LEVEL IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A JET STREAM BRANCH RIDES OVER THE NORTHERN CREST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 24N140W...AND EXTENDING TO 27N130W...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N118W...AND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50-70 KT WITHIN ABOUT 450 NM S OF THE JET. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 17N-24N AND S OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND W OF 128W. OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT YESTERDAY WAS NOTED OVER THE GALAPAGOS HAS SINCE SHIFTED NE TO NEAR 7N89W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 3N107W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE NE TO ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR VERY LIMITED TO NO MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT OVER THE PORTION OF THIS AREA S OF 16N AND E OF 101W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...IS BEING CHANNELED NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 19N113W TO 12N111W TO 2N111W TOWARDS SE MEXICO AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FLOW AROUND THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA SW TO NEAR 5N85W IS CREATING A DIFFLUENT REGION OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THIS AREA OVER AND NEAR THE ITCZ. THIS EARLIER HAD HELPED SET-OFF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5N83W TO 5N85W...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED DURING JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE PACIFIC BASIN AND INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH WED MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1032 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N136W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N122W TO NEAR 17N112W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 14N AND W OF 116W. FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 5N TO 25N W OF 129W...WITH A SMALLER AREA OF TRADES...N TO NE IN DIRECTION...FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 121W-129W. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING JUST W OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 19N113W 12N112W 2N111W EXTENDS FROM 12N110W TO 4N116W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N112W. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD IN 24 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH TO THE N RETREATS TO THE NW AND WEAKENS. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 26N E OF 126W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AS EVIDENCED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1742 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING N TO NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH TO THE N PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING FOR THE LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO BECOME RATHER BROAD TO ALONG NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC. BY THU EVENING...THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL AS IT SHIFTS W TO ALONG 30N BETWEEN 125W-132W. SEAS UP TO 9 OR 10 FT IN A N SWELL MAY BE JUST CROSSING 30N-32N WITHIN THIS AREA OF N TO NE WINDS. $$ AGUIRRE