000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 4N78W 5N95W 3N105W 5N115W 3N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 133W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N134W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
CIRCULATION SW TO 26N140W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 
150 NM E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS E OF 
THE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 26N129W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS S OF 25N W OF 125W. A 90-100 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM
24N140W TO 17N125W. BROKEN CIRRUS COLDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF 
JET AXIS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS 
FROM 21N121W TO EQUATOR AT 114W. ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
WITHIN THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO WESTERN 
MEXICO NEAR 19N103W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 
90W-100W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS EXTENDS FROM 
GUATEMALA TO 4N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITHIN THE RIDGE.
ELY TRADES TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE...FROM  4N-20N W OF 130W. SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 
THE ITCZ FROM 6N113W TO 3N119W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1013 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS NEAR 13N96W.

$$
DGS