000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0630 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N91W 
TO 03N105W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 136W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 92W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM NEAR 31N154W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA NEAR 27N140W THEN THROUGH A 1021 HIGH NEAR 26N129W 
TO 14N108W. FRESH NE TRADE WINDS LIE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 
06N TO 20N W OF 119W ACCORDING TO THE 0204 WINDSAT PASS. THESE 
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT W SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS THE WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR 26N129W DISSIPATES AND THE HIGH WELL 
NW OF THE AREA DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGH TUE. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT LIES OVER N WATERS FROM 32N122W TO 28N131W. 
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IS ALREADY 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A NOTCH TODAY 
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES CONSOLIDATES NW OF THE AREA.

A 60-80 KT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET LIES ALONG 13N140W TO 
13N130W TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 27N105W. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING 
UPPER MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION AND MULTI-LAYERED 
CLOUDINESS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 420 NM S OF THE JET AXIS. DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS CONFINED TO ALONG THE ITCZ 
AND IS PRIMARILY FOUND W OF A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 
08N109W TO 02N113W. THIS TROUGH COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMA IN 
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM JET MARKED BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ALONG THE 
EQUATOR. FARTHER E...AN WEAK ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS AROUND 00N90W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHWARD THROUGH 
07S96W THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION LIES NEAR THE 
INTERSECTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND THE ITCZ.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT OVER THE GAP AREAS.

$$
SCHAUER