000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W 
TO 03N102W TO 03N140W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC 
IS RELATIVELY QUIET. THERE ARE NO GALES...NO GAP WIND EVENTS... 
NO ACTIVE COLD FRONTS...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 27N140W TO 25N118W. 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH NW WINDS N OF 24N 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED BY THE 
LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING FRESH 20 KT TRADEWINDS 
FROM 05N TO 19N W OF 129W AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST WINDSAT 
PASS. THE FRESH WINDS IN EACH OF THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
MAINTAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N132W TO 27N140W WITH 
LITTLE IMPACT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE 
FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF 100W IS DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 14 FT. THE WAVE 
HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH PEAK 
SEAS OF ONLY 12 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 FT BY MONDAY 
AFTERNOON. 

$$
AL