000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W 
TO 04N95W TO 04N110W TO 02N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS N OF 06N BETWEEN 82W AND THE ITCZ AXIS. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 
116W...AND BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC 
IS RELATIVELY QUIET. THERE ARE NO GALES...NO GAP WIND EVENTS... 
NO ACTIVE COLD FRONTS...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE SHORT-TERM HORIZON. 

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1029 MB HIGH 
NEAR 32N157W IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST WEST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW 
SURFACE WINDS AS CONFIRMED BY A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. ON THE 
SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE...THE 0615 ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE TRADE 
WINDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 06N TO 19N W OF 125W. BOTH OF THESE 
WIND REGIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND LIES FROM 
7N108W TO 2N113W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE NORTHERN END 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS BRUSHING THE NW 
WATERS WITH LITTLE IMPACT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT. 

THE ENTIRE REGION WEST OF 100W HAS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 15 FT. THE HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE 
FOUND N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. THE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL 
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH PEAK HEIGHTS OF ONLY 12 FT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS LATE SUN 
INCREASING SEAS ONLY TO 11 FT. E OF 110W...CROSS EQUATORIAL SW 
SWELL DOMINATES THE AREA.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IN THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC 
IS AN ACTIVE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE S OF THE EQUATOR 
ABOUT 90W TO 150W ALONG 05S. TWO DISTINCT INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONES ARE SOMETIMES PRESENT IN THE SPRING... 
ESPECIALLY DURING LA NINA EVENTS WHEN THE COLD EQUATORIAL SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGER.  

$$
GR