000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W 
TO 03N105W TO 05N120W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN AN AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ANALYZED N OF A LINE 
FROM 30N118W TO 24N130W TO 26N140W...THERE IS NOT MUCH HAPPENING 
IN THE NE PACIFIC REGION. NO GALES...NO GAP WIND EVENTS...NO 
ACTIVE COLD FRONTS...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE 0N THE SHORT-TERM HORIZON. AS A 
RESULT...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION AS PRESENT
SWELL TRAINS LOSE ENERGY AS THEY PROPAGATE INTO THE DEEP TROPICS.

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1030 MB HIGH 
NEAR 33N158W DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WHILE A MODERATE PRES GRADIENT W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT FRESH NW SURFACE WINDS. S OF THE RIDGE...FRESH TO STRONG 
NE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BY LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS. BOTH 
AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN.

THE MOST NOTEWORTHY ITEM IN THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC IS AN 
ACTIVE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE S OF THE EQUATOR FROM 
ABOUT 95W TO 160W ALONG 05S. HOWEVER DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR...POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG 
THIS ITCZ IS VERY UNLIKELY.

$$
MUNDELL