000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N78W 
TO 05N90W TO 04N105W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH OF INTEREST IN THE NE PACIFIC REGION THIS EVENING AS 
THERE ARE NO GALES...NO GAP WIND EVENTS...NO ACTIVE COLD 
FRONTS...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION.

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1029 MB HIGH 
NEAR 32N160W DOMINATES THE WEATHER OF THE AREA.  A TIGHTENING OF 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS 
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW SURFACE WINDS AS 
CONFIRMED BY SHIP ZCDG7.  ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE...FRESH 
NE TRADEWINDS ARE OBSERVED BY BOTH THE 1912Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS.  BOTH OF THESE WIND REGIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT 
LEAST SUNDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG 
02N108W TO 06N105W SHOWS SOME LOW-LEVEL TURNING BUT NO DEEP 
CONVECTION.  CHANCES ARE SLIM TO NONE FOR THIS TO LEAD TOWARD AN 
OUT OF SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTH-SOUTH RIDGING ALONG 110W IS 
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD SW FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REGION.  THIS FLOW 
IS ADVECTING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SOME 
EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

THE ENTIRE REGION WEST OF 100W HAS LONG PERIOD LARGE NW SWELL 
WITH PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 18 FT NEAR 30N125W.  
WHILE THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WAVE 
HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH PEAK HEIGHTS OF ONLY 12 FT BY 
SUNDAY NIGHT.

PERHAPS THE MOST NOTEWORTHY ITEM THIS EVENING IS THE RATHER 
STRONG INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT IS PRESENT SOUTH OF 
THE EQUATOR FROM ABOUT 90W TO 160W ALONG 05S.  THIS IS QUITE 
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND 
SHEAR...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG THIS 
ITCZ IS VERY UNLIKELY.

$$
LANDSEA