000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W 
TO 03N95W TO 05N110W THEN RESUMES AT 04N120W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W 
OF 120W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 
85W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW OF THE AREA TO NEAR 
15N110W WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 20-25 KT NW WINDS W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS CORROBORATED THESE 
WIND SPEEDS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
NEAR THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 
20N W OF 120W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF 130W. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE 
NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND MAINTAIN 
THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN THE 
ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 8N130W TO 4N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS N OF 6N. ANOTHER 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE FAR N WATERS BY SAT MORNING 
AND WILL DISSIPATE LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  

THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL...MERGING SOMEWHAT WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 
10N. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS NOW REACHING THE N 
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 17 FT N OF OF 
28N BETWEEN 127W AND 137W. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S AND E 
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO 88W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
BE BELOW 20 KT BY SAT MORNING. AN EARLIER JASON PASS SHOWED SEAS 
TO 7 FT ACROSS THIS AREA.

$$
GR