000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N88W 
TO 03N110W TO 02N118W TO 05N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 118W TO 131W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 04N99W...AND WITHIN 30 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N87W TO 03N92W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE N WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM 30N128W TO 19N140W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 30N116W TO 25N122W. ASCAT 
DATA INDICATE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT NW OF THE FRONT WHILE 
SEAS REMAIN 9-12 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N127W TO 
28N131W. THE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS 
HIGH PRES...CURRENTLY CENTERED NW OF AREA...BUILDS TO THE SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.  

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA FROM 06N TO 23N W OF 
130W. FRESH TRADES ARE BLOWING BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. WINDSAT 
AND ASCAT DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND SPEEDS. 
THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE BY 
FRI AS STRONG LOW PRES MOVES EWD JUST N OF AREA CAUSING THE 
RIDGE TO WEAKEN. 

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING OVER N WATERS AND 
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING FRESH NW 
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS ALONG THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 21N. WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN BAJA 
PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS PRES 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NE WATERS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND STRETCHES FROM 8N124W TO 
3N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED EITHER SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS AND N OF THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE ITCZ 
SECTION. 

E OF 110W...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT IS CENTERED JUST W 
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE N ACROSS 
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE IMPLIED DRY AIR 
MASS DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 110W...INCLUDING 
CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
NEAR THE ITCZ AND ALONG THE LINE FROM 05N87W TO 03N92W.  

REGIONAL WATERS ARE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
MERGING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 
AS HIGH AS 13 FT CAN BE FOUND N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. 
EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 28N W OF 
124W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
GR