000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231527 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED MAR 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 04N100W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 32N123W TO 24N140W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS FROM 23/0542 UTC INDICATES NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE LOCATED W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS S TO SW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION. THE NEXT BATCH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO REINFORCE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOSTLY PASS N OF THE AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W AND FROM 07N TO 21N W OF 124W ACCORDING TO THAT 23/0542 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY W-NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N124W DISSIPATES AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NW OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NW WATERS BECOMES THE DOMINANT HIGH CENTER. THE RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SECOND HIGH CENTER WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD... CAUSING THE TRADE WINDS TO AGAIN SHRINK SOUTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING OVER N WATERS AND TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 27N. WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE W DISSIPATES AND RIDGING IS ALLOWED TO BUILD OVER THE NE WATERS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS MARKED BY SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION....HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED CELLS ARE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 86W-94W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND RIDGING OVER N WATERS WILL ALLOW 20 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THEN MIGRATE S TOWARD CABO CORRIENTES THURSDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN A HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. $$ HUFFMAN