000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED 09N84W TO 
03N106W TO 05N127W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE AREA...AND EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 26N140W. ASCAT SHOWS NW 
WINDS 20-25 KT W OF FRONT. SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED E OF 
THE FRONT N OF 29W. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THU. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS GENERATED BY THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA 
TONIGHT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1036 MB HIGH NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
37N157W TO A 1021 HIGH NEAR 28N122W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 
KT TRADES FROM 07N TO 18N W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL 
INCREASE OVER THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THIS RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS NEAR 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL EXPAND TO 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COASTLINE WED. A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA HAS FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TROUGH 
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN INCREASED 
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT AND RIDGING OVER N WATERS WILL ALLOW 20 KT WINDS TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO WED 
THAT WILL MIGRATE SLIGHTLY S TOWARD CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH THU.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 KT THROUGH THU...THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

$$
MUNDELL