000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N85W 
TO 04N110W TO 06N122W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...AND WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 122W TO 126W AND WITHIN 30 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 126W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT GALE FORCE 
WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY HAS 
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION 
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N115W TO 18N124W TO A 
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 16N129W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 8N136W. SWLY FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS NEWD TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A 70-90 KT JET STREAM BRANCH IS N OF 
28N E OF 130W EXTENDING TO THE NE OVER THE SW CONUS. 

A NEW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
THIS MORNING AND STRETCHES FROM 30N135W TO 29N140W. NW WINDS OF 
20 KT AND SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT CAN BE FOUND W OF FRONT. SWLY OF 
20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED E OF THE FRONT N OF 29W TO 131W. THE FRONT 
WILL REACH FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND 
DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS... 
WAVE PERIOD BETWEEN 18 TO 19 SECONDS...CAN BE FOUND IN THE WAKE 
OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 
28N124W HAS A RIDGE OVER FORECAST WATERS COVERING ROUGHLY THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING FRESH 
20 KT TRADES FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 08N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL CHANGE LITTLE 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE 
W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY CONFINED 
TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL EXPAND 
TO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT DAY. 

FARTHER SE...A TROUGH IS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS 
FROM 7N77W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 4N79W TO 2N80W. ONLY 
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 1438 UTC EXPERIMENTAL ASCAT 25 KM 
COASTAL WINDS SHOWED W TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 27N DUE TO THE 
PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...BUT THE STRENGTHENED PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN INCREASED TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT AND RIDGING OVER N 
WATERS WILL ALLOW 20 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE PORTION OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO WED THAT WILL MIGRATE S TOWARD CABO 
CORRIENTES THROUGH THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE STILL 
NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
ABOVE 20 KT IN BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN HIGH 
PRES TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ALONG 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

$$
GR/JS