000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220924 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE MAR 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0700 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N83W TO 03N100W TO 04N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. ...DISCUSSION... THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY HAS STALLED AND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FROM 28N112W TO 21N120W TO 18N140W WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT LIES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N118W TO 10N138W. A 70-110 KT UPPER JET LIES OVER NW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO MEXICO BY THIS JET IS MARKED BY A SWATH OF CIRRUS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL MAKES ITS WAY E ACROSS N WATERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT REACHES FROM 30N117W TO 24N125W BY THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY THU MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS INTO THE N PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 10-12 FT AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THAT EXPERIENCED WITH THE LAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER N WATERS BISECTS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 13N AND W OF 110W. THE 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF THIS FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO N WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND LIES NEAR 24N131W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING BUILDING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA WILL EXPAND TO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTLINE S OF 30N BY WED MORNING BEFORE MIGRATING BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COAST THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT LIES ALONG 06N W OF 90W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPLIED BY THIS RIDGE. THE CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM THE ITCZ IS BEING CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA BY A 35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET CENTERED JUST N OF THIS RIDGE AXIS ALONG 11N. FARTHER SE...A TROUGH LIES WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 02N TO 07N. ONLY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS STILL RESPONSIBLE FOR 20 KT WINDS TO ITS N THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF TODAY...BUT THE STRENGTHENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN INCREASED TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT AND RIDGING OVER N WATERS WILL ALLOW 20 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO WED THAT WILL MIGRATE S TOWARD CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH THU. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT IN BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. $$ SCHAUER