000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 09N85W TO 05N91W 
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS 
FROM 27N113W TO 20N123W TO 19N140W. ASCAT DATA THIS AFTERNOON 
SHOWED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12-24 
HOURS...AND ARE ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS. WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. 
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NW OF THE AREA WILL APPROACH 
THE NORTHERN PORTION IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AND GENERATE ANOTHER 
MODERATE SURGE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS NW OF 
THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND HAVE WINDS LESS THAN 
25 KT AS IT CROSSES 30N.

WINDS AND SEAS GENERATED BY FRESH TRADE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N AND ITCZ TROUGH 
ALONG 5N WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS. EXPECT 8-11 FT SEAS WITH MIXED NW SWELL AND NE WIND 
WAVES IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AND WED...AND MAY REACH 20 KT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO AROUND 6-7 FT S OF 25N BY WED.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING THEN DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS 
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE WITH THE AID OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 
20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT INCREASE TO 25 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRES 
TO THE S ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT BY WED MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL