000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 01N80W TO 05N101W
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS 
FROM 30N114W TO 24N118W TO 20N130W. ASCAT DATA THIS AFTERNOON 
SHOWED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12-24 
HOURS...TO AROUND 20 KT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND 
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS. 
WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
COLD FRONT PEAKING AT 18-19 FT NEAR 30N DURING THE PAST 6-12 
HOURS THEN BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LOSES ITS 
PUNCH MOVING ONSHORE. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NW OF 
THE AREA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS 
AND GENERATE ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN 
ABOUT 36-48 HOURS NW OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND HAVE 
MINOR EFFECTS WIND-WISE AS IT CROSSES 30N.

WINDS AND SEAS GENERATED BY FRESH TRADE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N AND ITCZ TROUGH 
ALONG 5N WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS. EXPECT 8-11 FT SEAS WITH MIXED NW SWELL AND NE WIND 
WAVES IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AND WED...AND MAY REACH 20 KT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO AROUND 6-7 FT S OF 25N BY WED.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING THEN DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS 
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE WITH THE AID OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 
20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT INCREASE TO 25 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRES 
TO THE S ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT BY WED MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL