000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAR 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 15450 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 5N80W 5N95W 5N110W 6N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W-91W AND BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W-124W...AND BETWEEN 131W-137W. ...DISCUSSION... THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND NOW STRETCHES FROM THE FAR PACIFIC NW AREA OF THE U.S. S TO ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N122W...THEN BEGINS TO EXTEND SW TO 20N123W TO 15N128W AND TO W OF THE AREA THROUGH 10N140W. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 23N123W TO NEAR 19N140W...AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND ARE NOW SW-W 20 TO 25 KT N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. N OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE NW-N 20 KT WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 11 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN THE FROM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIVE SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NEXT ONE EXPECTED TO REACH A PSN FROM NEAR 30N135W TO 29N140W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND FROM NEAR 30N124W TO 26N140W IN 48 HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS INTO THE N PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 10-13 FT AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THAT EXPERIENCED WITH THE LAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. SE OF THE INITIAL FRONT...A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS NEAR 22.5N117W WHILE HIGH PRES IS RIDGING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM ABOUT 7N-18N W OF 131W...AND FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 122W-131W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO 21N OVERNIGHT...AND TO 22N IN 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE NW AND N TO OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL U.S. BROAD HIGH PRES AT MID/UPPER LEVEL COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N AND E OF 115W. TO ITS W...A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N113W NW TO 17N117W. UPPER LEVEL S-SW WINDS OF 50-60 KT ARE NOTED WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. THIS FLOW IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS NE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. FARTHER SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM NW COLOMBIA SW TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 4N79W AND TO 2N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AND LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND NOT CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 20N AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND TUE WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT INCREASE TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT BY WED MORNING. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211604 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAR 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 5N80W 5N95W 5N110W 6N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W-91W AND BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W-124W...AND BETWEEN 131W-137W. ...DISCUSSION... THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND NOW STRETCHES FROM THE FAR PACIFIC NW AREA OF THE U.S. S TO ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N122W...THEN BEGINS TO EXTEND SW TO 20N123W TO 15N128W AND TO W OF THE AREA THROUGH 10N140W. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 23N123W TO NEAR 19N140W...AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND ARE NOW SW-W 20 TO 25 KT N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. N OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE NW-N 20 KT WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 11 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN THE FROM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIVE SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NEXT ONE EXPECTED TO REACH A PSN FROM NEAR 30N135W TO 29N140W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND FROM NEAR 30N124W TO 26N140W IN 48 HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS INTO THE N PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 10-13 FT AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THAT EXPERIENCED WITH THE LAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. SE OF THE INITIAL FRONT...A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS NEAR 22.5N117W WHILE HIGH PRES IS RIDGING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM ABOUT 7N-18N W OF 131W...AND FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 122W-131W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO 21N OVERNIGHT...AND TO 22N IN 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE NW AND N TO OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL U.S. BROAD HIGH PRES AT MID/UPPER LEVEL COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N AND E OF 115W. TO ITS W...A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N113W NW TO 17N117W. UPPER LEVEL S-SW WINDS OF 50-60 KT ARE NOTED WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. THIS FLOW IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS NE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. FARTHER SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM NW COLOMBIA SW TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 4N79W AND TO 2N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AND LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND NOT CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 20N AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND TUE WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT INCREASE TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT BY WED MORNING. $$ AGUIRRE