000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210901 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON MAR 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0700 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 01N104W TO 03N115W TO 05N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 96W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... WIND HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 26N123W TO 23N130W ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0444 UTC WHICH ONLY SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 122W. THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 30 KT...NOW RESIDE W OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND SHIPS WFLH WHICH REPORTED 28 KT NEAR 29N132W AND SHIP WDC3786 WHICH REPORTED 30 KT NEAR 28N130W AT 0600 UTC. THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 16 FT THAT WILL DAMPEN AS THEY CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY SUNSET. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE MORNING...EXTENDING FROM 30N125W TO 26N140W BY THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY WED MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS INTO THE N PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 10-12 FT AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THAT EXPERIENCED WITH THE LAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER N WATERS BISECTS THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 12N AND W OF 118W. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TODAY...RIDGING TO ITS NW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER N WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 06N TO 17N W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO 21N OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES REORGANIZES FARTHER NW. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 09N102W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N112W. A 50-70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET LIES N OF THIS RIDGE AXIS. THIS JET IS PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT INTO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO MEXICO. FARTHER SE...A TROUGH LIES THROUGH EASTERN PANAMA AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 09N77W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 05N78W TO 04N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AT 05N. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND NOT CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED ABOVE 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY LIES JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS MORE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THE STRENGTHENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN INCREASED TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT AND BUILDING RIDGING OVER N WATERS WILL ALLOW 20 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND TUE WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT IN BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. $$ SCHAUER