000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 
02N107W TO 06N132W TO 05N140W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO 25N128W TO 24N140W 
WITH RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE 
FRONT...AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WITH 
SEAS TO 16 FT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND E OVER 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT 
E....AND BY EARLY TUE THE FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING INLAND THE 
WESTERN U.S. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM 30N130W TO 27N140W 
TUE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELLS INTO THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. 

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20N140W TO 
19N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 
07N TO 16N W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF 20 KT TRADES WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FARTHER SE...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
NEAR 04N78W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED ABOVE 20 KT AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
AREA LATE MON NIGHT THEN WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...WITH WINDS 
THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY TUE 
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
MON AND TUE WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
PASSES INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
AL