000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 
03N97W TO 06N112W TO 05N124W TO 09N131W TO 06N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST OF THE U.S. 
EXTENDS A BROAD UPPER THOUGH INTO THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 32N124W TO 24N130W TO W OF THE AREA AT 21N140W. A JET 
STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH CORE WINDS OF 
80-100 KT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 
15N106W TO 11N130W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT EXTENDS FROM 12N124W TO 5N128W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD 
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SE AND MOVE INTO THE THE NW PORTION BY 
EARLY SUN MORNING WITH INCREASING SW-W WINDS AHEAD OF IT. WINDS 
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN 12 HOURS...WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 15 FT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE W-NW AT 20 TO 25 KT 
WITH SEAS TO 18 FT FROM LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS.

HIGH PRES PREVAILS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. FRESH TRADE WINDS S 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EVIDENT FROM ASCAT DATA FROM 06N TO 20N W 
OF 130W. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY 
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 
AREA OF TRADES TO SHIFT S AND DIMINISH. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS IN THE FAR NE PORTION...WITH 
20 KT NW WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED SURFACE CIRCULATION ALONG 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 45 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH A 
DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN THE MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE PASS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH NE TO E 20-25 
KT WINDS FUNNELING FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND 
HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALLOWING N WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF AS FAR S AS 5N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ONLY SLIGHT 
CHANGES IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL