000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED ALONG 02N79W TO 03N89W 
TO 00N96W RESUMING NEAR 02N106W TO 08N127W TO 04N140W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED WELL NW OF THE REGION 
NEAR 31N153W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE FORECAST DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 28N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 23N W OF 
122W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER 
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING FRESH 20 KT NW 
WINDS N OF 26N E OF 118W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE 
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE 
NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE 
RIDGE WEAKENING...COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL 
DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKENING 
RIDGE WILL ALSO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 20 KT LATE SATURDAY 
NIGHT. 

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH WILL 
BRING AN INCREASE IN SW TO W WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THESE WINDS WILL 
BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT N OF 28N W OF 125W...THEN INCREASE 
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE STRENGTH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 
FRONT REACHES FROM 30N130W TO 28N140W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT 
ARE FORECAST TO BE W TO NW AT 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT IN 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO PREVAIL WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING SW OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO NEAR 12N98W. THESE WINDS WILL 
BRIEFLY PEAK TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE AID 
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ARE FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

$$
HUFFMAN