000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170243
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 03N77W 
TO 02N90W TO 07N112W TO 03N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EPAC 
ALONG 29N115W 15N130W. A 70-110 KT UPPER JET LIES N OF 
27N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE IMPLIED DRY 
AIR MASS IS NOTED S OF 15N W OF 120W. THE TROUGH OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND EXTENDS 
FROM 30N123W TO 28N130W AT 17/0000 UTC. 

HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THIS 
HIGH WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER ONE THAT FOLLOWS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT 
INCREASING TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE MOST 
RECENT ASCAT PASS...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
CURRENTLY LIES FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 125W...BUT WILL EXPAND TO 
29N BY EARLY THU. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS LIE E OF THE HIGH 
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PARTICULARLY N 
OF 25N E OF 122W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH AND 
SHRINK NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THU 
AS THE HIGH REORGANIZES NW.

REGIONAL WATERS...W OF 110W...ARE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN 
THE 16-18 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR AND 125W RAISING 
SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE
TO 10S110W IN 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH PERIODS IN THE 
15-16 SECOND RANGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 120W S OF 
10N.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...IXTEPEC MEXICO IS REPORTING SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF ONLY 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE SOON 
INCREASE TO 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE PASS WILL BE AT ITS DIURNAL 
MAXIMUM. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... 
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BY THU MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD FRI EVENING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE 
COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALLOWING FOR N 
WINDS TO REACH 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA BY THU MORNING...AND 
25 KT BY FRI MORNING.  

$$
FORMOSA