000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 02N90W TO 06N110W TO 06N114W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EPAC 
ALONG 22N120W 15N130W 13N140W. A 50-70 KT UPPER JET LIES BETWEEN 
THE TROUGH AXIS AND 17N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE 
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED S OF 18N E OF 100W. THE TROUGH 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES 
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NW WATERS AND 
EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 26N140W AT 16/1800 UTC. 

HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THIS 
HIGH WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER ONE THAT FOLLOWS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT 
ASCAT PASS...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY 
LIES FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 125W...BUT WILL EXPAND TO 29N BY EARLY 
THU. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS LIE E OF THE HIGH ALONG THE COAST 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PARTICULARLY N OF 25N E OF 
122W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH AND SHRINK 
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THU AS THE 
HIGH REORGANIZES NW.

REGIONAL WATERS...W OF 110W...ARE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS 
IN THE 16-18 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 17 FT. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH PERIODS IN THE 
15-16 SECOND RANGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 120W S OF 
10N.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...IXTEPEC MEXICO IS REPORTING SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH 
THE PASS WILL BE AT ITS DIURNAL MAXIMUM. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... 
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BY THU MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE 
COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALLOWING FOR N 
WINDS TO REACH 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA BY THU MORNING...AND 
25 KT BY FRI MORNING.  

$$
FORMOSA