000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 02N85W TO 06N109W THEN RESUMES AT 06N114W TO 05N130W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N 
AND 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 114W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS 
ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EPAC 
ALONG 22N120W 15N130W 13N140W. A 50-70 KT UPPER JET LIES BETWEEN 
THE TROUGH AXIS AND 17N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE 
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED S OF 18N E OF 100W. THE TROUGH 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES 
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NW WATERS AND 
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 27N140W AT 16/1200 UTC. 

HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THIS 
HIGH WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER ONE THAT FOLLOWS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT 
ASCAT PASS...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY 
LIES FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 125W...BUT WILL EXPAND TO 29N BY EARLY 
THU. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS LIE E OF THE HIGH ALONG THE COAST 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PARTICULARLY N OF 25N E OF 
122W.   THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH AND SHRINK 
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THU AS THE 
HIGH REORGANIZES NW.

REGIONAL WATERS...W OF 110W...ARE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS 
IN THE 16-18 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 17 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
WITH PERIODS IN THE 15-16 SECOND RANGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE 
AREA E OF 110W. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SHIP A8FZ6 NEAR 14N95W REPORTED NE WINDS  
OF 25 KT THIS MORNING. IXTEPEC IN MEXICO IS REPORTING SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT. ON THE BASIS OF THIS 
OBSERVATIONS...WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL BE 
GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE PASS WILL BE AT ITS DIURNAL MAXIMUM. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... 
LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BY THU MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD FRI MORNING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE 
COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALLOWING FOR N 
WINDS TO REACH 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA BY THU MORNING...AND 
25 KT BY FRI MORNING.  

$$
GR/JS