000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W 
TO 04N95W TO 06N110W TO 05N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.    

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 
130W MOVING E. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 27N 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 20N-27N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
IS ELSEWHERE N OF THE EQUATOR W OF 95W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS OFF THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA E OF 95W. 

AT THE SURFACE...1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED AT 28N135W 
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N105W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST 
TO DRIFT S AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDING E 
ALONG 28N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER 
THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM 30N120W TO 26N130W WED 
EVENING ...AND DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AT 20 
TO 25 KT N OF 25N E OF 120W TO THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE 
HIGH ARE LESS THAN 20 KT...ELSEWHERE IN THE SUBTROPICS LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS TO 12 FT. NE TRADES ARE 15 
TO 20 KT SW OF THE HIGH...GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 120W 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 
05N TO 20N W OF 106W SEAS ARE 7 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR 
MIXING WITH THE CROSS NW AND NE SWELL OVER THE WATERS S OF THE 
ITCZ TO THE W OF 100W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NEW TRAIN 0F 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...DRIVING SEAS UP TO 16 FT...WILL PUSH 
INTO THE NW PORTION TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SPREAD SE 
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 25 KT...MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS... 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS WILL MAINTAIN 
WINDS FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W AT 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GULF OF PANAMA...N TO NE 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT IN 24 HOURS LASTING THROUGH 48 HOURS.  

$$
FORMOSA