000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W 
TO 05N110W TO 04N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 
NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.  

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 
130W MOVING E. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 27N 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 20N-27N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
IS ELSEWHERE N OF THE EQUATOR W OF 95W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS OFF THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA E OF 95W. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED AT 28N131W WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N110W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
DRIFT S AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDING E ALONG 
28N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW 
WATERS TONIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM 30N125W TO 26N140W WED EVENING 
...AND DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 
KT N OF 25N E OF 122W TO THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE 
HIGH ARE LESS THAN 20 KT...ELSEWHERE IN THE SUBTROPICS LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS TO 14 FT. NE TRADES ARE 15 
TO 20 KT SW OF THE HIGH...GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 21N W OF 120W 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 
05N TO 21N W OF 106W SEAS ARE 7 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR 
MIXING WITH THE CROSS NW AND NE SWELL OVER THE WATERS S OF THE 
ITCZ TO THE W OF 100W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NEW TRAIN 0F 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...DRIVING SEAS UP TO 18 FT...WILL PUSH 
INTO THE NW PORTION TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SPREAD SE 
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 25 KT...MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS... 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS WILL MAINTAIN 
WINDS FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W AT 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GULF OF PANAMA...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA 
CENTERED NEAR 06N79W. WINDS ARE TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. 
EXPECT THE LOW PRES TO FILL TONIGHT AS N TO NE WINDS BEGIN TO 
SURGE AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KT.

$$
FORMOSA