000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 03N77W 
TO 05N100W TO 04N115W TO 05N125W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE PASSING E ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PORTION. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N126W TO 
18N140W. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDS 
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TO NEAR LAS MARIAS ISLANDS. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 10N115W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
NNE AND CRESTING BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS AT 
26N120W. SW FLOW BETWEEN THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS 
ADVECTING  A WIDE BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL WATERS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY 
DRY S OF 18N E OF 110W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO THE ISOLATED 
CELLS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N128W WITH A RIDGE COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
110W. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT N OF 25N E OF 122W TO 
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE WESTERN 
RIDGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...RESULTING IN SEAS 9 TO 15 
FT...ARE OBSERVED NW OF LINE FROM 30N126W TO 22N140W. NW 
SWELLS...SEAS TO 9 FT...ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE 
WATERS N OF 20N W OF 110W. NORTHEAST TRADES ARE ENHANCED AT 15 
TO 20 KT SW OF THE RIDGE...GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 115W 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 
03N TO 20N W OF 107W SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
HOWEVER...A NEW TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...DRIVING SEAS UP 
TO 18 FT...WILL PUSH INTO THE NW PORTION TUE NIGHT AND WED. 
 
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER 
NE MEXICO. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE PASS WILL BE AT ITS DIURNAL MAXIMUM. 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO ABOUT 10 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF 
11N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W BY WED. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS WILL MAINTAIN 
WINDS AT 20 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE 1436 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 15 
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
GR/MN