000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 02N80W 
TO 04N95W TO 05N115W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 75 NM S AND BETWEEN 75 NM AND 240 NM N OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 45 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE SW END OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 32N123W TO BEYOND 21N140W. TO ITS SE LIES AN OMEGA-LIKE 
PATTERN WITH A TROUGH FROM 10N140W TO 00N132W AND ANOTHER FROM 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 00N107W SEPARATED BY AN UPPER 
RIDGE FROM 07N108W TO 16N125W. THIS PATTERN WILL BE BROKEN UP ON 
TUE AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW IS DRAGGED 
EASTWARD ACROSS N WATERS...PUSHED BY THE ZONAL UPPER JET NW OF 
THE AREA WITH JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 150 KT ALONG 35N. THE COLD 
FRONT N OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS 
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH GENERATED NW SWELL THAT IS MOVING INTO 
NW WATERS. SEAS ARE AS HIGH AS 13 FT THERE AT THE MOMENT. THIS 
SWELL WILL DAMPEN AS IT SPREADS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA...BUT A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS BY 
WED MORNING AND BRING SEAS TO 15 FT.

1028 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY LIES NEAR 29N129W AND IS FORECAST TO 
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS...CURRENTLY FROM 06N TO 
21N W OF 130W...WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THAT TIME. 20 KT NW 
WINDS LIE E OF THE HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...WITH THE 0528 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS TO 25 KT 
N OF 28N. THIS AREA OF NW TO N WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND 
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH 
PRES CENTER.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL REGION 
E OF 115W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE MARKS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 18N AND 
E OF 115W...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NOTED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST AREA IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND RIDGE S OF 20N W OF 100W. 
THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NE 
MEXICO. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE PASS WILL BE AT ITS DIURNAL MAXIMUM. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0342 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS 
AROUND 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE 
LANDMASS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WINDS AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL DURING 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
ON WED MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIP BATFR43 REPORTED 20 KT N WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA AT 0800 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ERODES CAUSING 
THE PRES GRADIENT TO DIMINISH OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA BETWEEN 
HIGH PRES TO THE N AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW.

$$
SCHAUER