000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N92W 
TO 04N110W TO 04N115W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST 
AREA W OF 110W. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE NW CORNER AND EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO BEYOND 25N140W.  
ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER NW MEXICO WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
NEAR 27N. A 70-90 KT JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IS 
TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD 
FROM S OF HAWAII ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND INTO NW MEXICO. 
BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS...THERE IS A RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 10N111W TO BEYOND 30N120W. 
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS 
HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE ITCZ. A 
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 
9N102W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS NEAR THE TROUGH 
AXIS AND S OF 20N W OF 110W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA.    

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 29N126W. 
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS 
SLIGHTLY WWD. AN AREA OF TRADE WINDS IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND IS FORECAST TO EXPAND IN RESPONSE TO 
THE STRENGTHENING HIGH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF 20 KT NW 
WINDS LIES E OF THE HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT NW 
WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS AREA OF 20 
KT WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD IN 
RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. SW WINDS 
OF 15-20 KT WERE REPORTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 1814 UTC BY THE 
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER. A FRESH BATCH OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SEAS TO 16 FT IN NW WATERS MON MORNING 
BEFORE DAMPENING AS THE SWELL SPREADS SE. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SHOULD REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
TUE NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT 
MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE 
FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS.     

GULF OF PANAMA...NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE STILL NOTED THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MON 
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA BETWEEN 
HIGH PRES TO THE N AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW RELAXES.

$$
GR