000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 03N96W 
TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST 
AREA W OF 110W. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE NW CORNER AND EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO BEYOND 25N140W. A 
70-90 KT JET LIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS TRANSPORTING 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM S OF HAWAII 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND INTO NW MEXICO. ANOTHER TROUGH IS 
OVER NW MEXICO WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 27N. BETWEEN 
THESE TROUGHS...THERE IS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 11N112W TO BEYOND 30N120W.  

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 29N125W. 
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS 
SLIGHTLY N THROUGH MON MORNING AND SLIGHTLY W THEREAFTER. THE 
AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND IN RESPONSE TO THE 
STRENGTHENING HIGH. AN AREA OF 20 KT NW WINDS LIES E OF THE HIGH 
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE N OF 20N PER THE MOST 
RECENT ASCAT PASS. THIS AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO 
EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING 
HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. SW WINDS 
OF 15-20 KT WERE REPORTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 1814 UTC BY THE 
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NW CORNER 
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRESH BATCH OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SEAS TO 15 FT IN NW WATERS MON MORNING 
BEFORE DAMPENING AS THE SWELL SPREADS SE. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT 
MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE 
FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS.     

GULF OF PANAMA...NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE STILL NOTED THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MON 
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA BETWEEN 
HIGH PRES TO THE N AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW RELAXES.

$$
GR