000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 02N80W TO 04N91W TO 05N124W TO 06N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 127W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N110W TO CDNTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO BEYOND 23N140W. JET CORE AHEAD OF TROUGH ADVECT 
WIDE SWATH OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOSITURE NOE TO N HALF 
OF MEXICO.  FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITHIN 240 NM OF 
TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWED BY NEW AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
NOW ENTERING E OPAC NW CORNER.  DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS IS 
FLATTENED RIDGE CREST WITH NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLIES FROM 
15N-23N.  

WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE AT 10N117W HOLD RIDGE IN PLACE WITH 
LITTLE ENERGY TO  MOVE IT WITHIN FORECAST PERIOD.  MODERATE 
DIFFLUENT FLOW W OF ANTICYCLONE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ 
FROM 127W TO 134W.  

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD WELL SUPPORTED STATIONARY HIGH PRES RIDGE 1024 MB AT 
29N127W.  FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 132W EXPAND N 
AND E IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE.  SRIDGE ALSO 
INCREASES FRESH NW WINDS ALONG COAST OF N BAJA CALIFORNIA 
SPREADING S TO 24N THEN W TO 120W.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUN AND DIMINISH MON.  HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN 
DRAINAGE FLOW MAY INCREASE IT TO HIGHER SPEEDS.   

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY BUT 
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUE.

$$
WALLY BARNES